“There are a lot of debates about ‘What North Korea Wants,’ ” says Sheena Greitens, a fellow in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings Institution and an assistant professor at the University of Missouri.

“First, what matters are the interests of the very top leadership, which is narrower than 'North Korea' or even 'the North Korean government.' Second, North Korea might use a range of strategies… but we should remember that they're all aimed at the same underlying, fundamental objective: ensuring Kim's political survival.”

…. In North Korea, the party congress framework was dropped under Kim's father, Kim Jong Il, who ruled from 1994 until his death in 2011. Soon to be revived under his son, the congress is expected to roll out the next phase of Kim's rule.

“The stakes are always higher in the first few years of a dictator's time in power, and the first few years are almost always more [internally] violent,” Greitens says. "The rules of the game under the new leader are still being established — both inside the country and externally — so it makes uncertainty higher.”